European Housing Review

European Housing Review

In de RICS European Housing Review 2009 wordt gekeken naar de prestaties van de Europese huizenmarkt in 2008. De belangrijkste conclusies uit het rapport:

  • De huizenprijzen zijn in heel Europa gelijkgebleven dan wel gedaald
  • De kans dat er landen ontsnappen aan prijsdalingen is erg klein
  • Huizenprijzen daalde in 2008 aanzienlijk in Midden-en Oost-Europa, Ierland, Frankrijk, het Verenigd Koninkrijk en in de Scandinavische landen.
  • Alle Europese huizenmarkten hebben te maken met groot aanbod en een dalende vraag
  • De nieuwbouw markt is in belangrijkste steden van Midden-en Oost-Europa tot stilstand gekomen, met als gevolg een groeiend aantal onverkochte woningen

Hieronder een aantal opvallende alinea’s uit het hoofdstuk over de Nederlandse huizenmarkt:

Falling interest rates may boost housing demand but this is unlikely to offset the general problems of the economy, declining consumer confidence and tightening lending criteria. What is more, the country has one of the highest mortgage to GDP ratios in the world and a quarter of recent mortgage lending has been funded via special purpose vehicles, so that constriction of capital market lending will continue to have significant effects.

Nederlandse huizenprijzen 1985 -2007

De huizenprijzen zijn tussen 1985 en 2007 met 400% gestegen

The level of mortgage indebtedness of many owner occupiers is exceptional by international standards. For example, 62% of new mortgage loans were classified as ‘very large mortgages’ in 2005, having loan-to-value ratios (LTV) of over 100%, while the average LTV of first-time buyers in 2007 was 114%. An inducement to high levels of household borrowing is mortgage interest tax relief (MITR) in a country with high marginal rates of taxation, so that consumers have an incentive to load debt onto housing. The central bank raised some concerns about the risk exposure associated with the scale of borrowing, particularly for younger households but more recently has been more confident that widespread severe mortgage difficulties are unlikely. However, the next couple of years are likely to prove difficult and a testing time for such optimism.

bron: rics.org

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